There are no completely accurate methods to measure the size of illicit markets, no matter what is being bought and sold. There are, however, some figures that can be taken as proxies of these markets. In the case of cannabis, it could be argued that seizures and confiscations can be, in a way, interpreted as surrogates of the actual illicit market sales.
Now, while establishing a univocal multiple to convert confiscations into actual sales is really hard, seizure figures can help us better understand the direction of the illegal markets: are they growing or shrinking? At what pace?
To help us figure this out, GreenWave Advisors shared some exclusive data based on reports from the DEA and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security with High Times.
CHART 2017 vs 2016
For reference, GreenWave estimates that last year cannabis sales hit $8.2 billion, with California boasting a 34 percent market share.
As it can be appreciated above, total confiscations (as measured in U.S. dollars) declined by 35 percent from 2016 to 2017, signaling a similar drop in illicit market marijuana sales over last year – and an even larger drop when compared to previous years.
Multi-YEAR CHART
However, it’s important to notice that confiscations can relate to different phenomena. The decline can be interpreted:
- As a signal of a reduction of illegal cannabis production and sales.
- As a reflection of a reduced interest by the DEA and other agencies to prosecute the illegal cannabis trade.
- As a proxy of a decline in the efficiency or efficacy of said law enforcement agencies.
- As a sign of the surging impediments and hurdles these federal agencies face as more states legalize weed.